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Prediction for CME (2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-30T06:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39157/-1
CME Note: CME with hazy leading edge first seen in the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-05-30T06:38Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an M3.4 class flare from AR 4100 (N05E21) as seen in SDO AIA 131. A wide area of dimming is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211, along with field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density, followed by a drop in density. There is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components seen further in the signature (after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating possible start of a flux rope (there are also two more potential flux ropes seen in the 2-day solar wind signature). This CME would likely have been swept by the front of the following, much faster, 2025-05-31T00:15Z CME, the combined front arriving early.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T05:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T13:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39196/1
Model Inputs:
2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=502.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T13:28Z
2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T19:16Z
2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=1302.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2025-05-31T02:32Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-01T13:24Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =16.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.7
(kp)90=8
(kp)180=9

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-05-31T22:12Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-01T15:26Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-04T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 13.78 hour(s)
Difference: -8.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2025-05-31T15:35Z

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